Our prediction for deer hunting prospects in Iowa this year? Deer hunting in the Hawkeye State will be as good this fall and winter as it has been for the past 10 or 15 years -- but it may not be as easy.

Changes in our deer population have altered how relatively "good" or "easy" deer hunting has been in Iowa in recent years. Deer numbers rose rapidly during the mid-1990s, peaked in 2006 and have stayed relatively high through the rest of the decade. Hunting regulations and seasons were dramatically liberalized in 2003 to increase the deer kill to deal with a population that had reached socially unacceptable levels by 2002.

The result: For the past six years, hunters have had multiple seasons with numerous license opportunities to kill deer from a large population. Hunting was not only good; for hunters in some parts of the state, it was almost easy.

That's changing. Iowa's overall deer population has declined in the face of increased hunting pressure. Data from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources indicate the female portion of our deer herd has declined by more than 25 percent, statewide.

That's good. The IDNR's carefully developed deer population goals for each of the 20 wildlife management units in the state are based on available habitat, the frequency of car/deer accidents, deer damage to crops and hunter input. Hunter success and satisfaction were critical parts of the eventual management plan.

"Hunting is how we manage our deer herd in Iowa," said Willie Suchy, IDNR wildlife research supervisor. "We use regulations and (hunting) seasons to encourage hunters to take more or fewer deer in the individual counties, depending on the goals for each county."

As the IDNR's deer managers carefully steer Iowa's deer herd toward its optimum population for Iowa, they concede they may have overshot that goal in some areas.

In northwest and north-central Iowa, where agricultural land outnumbers deer-friendly timberlands and hunters can more easily find and harvest deer, deer numbers have reached or slipped slightly below regional IDNR goals. Litchfield said regulations and seasons could be more restrictive by 2010 in that region to allow the deer herd to recover slightly.

In far northeast Iowa and far southeast Iowa, deer populations are still higher than wildlife managers' goals, thanks to near-perfect mixes of farm fields and timber that make those regions veritable deer factories. Deer numbers in our southern two tiers of counties are also still slightly above IDNR goals.

Those parts of the state will see similar regulations and seasons this year as they did last year, with a few counties gaining additional antlerless tags to increase pressure on localized populations of deer.

Counties in far northeast Iowa and the southern two tiers of counties with high populations of deer will again offer the Bonus January Season for antlerless deer, and some of the southern counties will again offer centerfire rifle hunting during that season.

"That Bonus January Season and the centerfire rifle opportunity have proved to be really popular," said Tom Litchfield, IDNR deer management biologist. "There's a tradition developing, where hunters from other parts of the state travel to southern Iowa for one final deer hunt of the year. It's helping bring the deer herd in that part of the state closer to our population goals."