The impact of adverse weather conditions will likely translate to a lower number of mature birds in years to come. The number of mature gobblers this spring, however, is unlikely to be affected

In a nutshell, here's the outlook for Iowa's 2009 spring turkey-hunting seasons:

More than 50,000 folks will buy resident, non-resident or landowner spring turkey-hunting licenses. Officials with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources predict success rates will be around 40 percent, which makes Iowa one of the top states for turkey hunting success in the United States.

Highest turkey harvest numbers will come from northeast Iowa. Highest success rates will originate in western Iowa, with northwest Iowa close behind. Harvests across the entire state will be on par with the last two or three years, though hunters in south-central and southeastern Iowa may get the impression that hunting is tougher than usual in their neighborhoods.

Those hunters may blame the rugged winter of 2007-08 and record-setting floods of last spring for the tougher hunting, but experts are confident that all the nasty weather will have minimal effect on this year's turkey hunting in Iowa.

Wait a minute.

The highest success rates will come from western and northwest Iowa? And two of the most significant weather events in Iowa in the past century -- the winter of 2007-08 and the floods of '08 -- will have minimal effect on turkey hunting? There are a few items in our outlook that fly against conventional wisdom. . . .

Let's take a closer look at some of the unusual situations that will -- or will not -- influence our spring turkey hunting seasons.

WEATHER OR NOT?
First, the nasty winter weather and then near-biblical flooding that hammered much of Iowa during the first half of 2008 had minimal effect on the turkeys that hunters will target this spring. A majority of hunters pass up jakes and wait for older toms. Since the population of mature gobblers that hatched two to four years ago was relatively unaffected by the record-setting weather of last year, our "target population" of gobblers is strong.

"The tough winter we had last year didn't do much harm to our population of mature turkeys," said Todd Gosselink, IDNR forest wildlife research biologist. "We only had one or two reports of (turkey) mortality related to weather. Normally our turkeys do very well through our winters because we have so much waste grain available in our crop fields. The biggest threat is ice storms, and we dodged a bullet with that big ice storm in eastern Iowa early last winter.

"Just after that storm, we caught a thaw before there was a succession of snowstorms. The thaw melted enough of the ice so the birds were able to dig down through the snow during the rest of the winter and get to food. I think they came through pretty well."

The record floods of last June did, and didn't, have effects on Iowa's turkey population. Gosselink noted that the floods came during the nesting peak. In areas where forested upland habitat was available, the total hatch was relatively unaffected. But in areas where timber bottoms constitute the majority of available turkey habitat, nesting success was often reduced.